I’m doing a baseline and design assessment for a road, and i have traffic growth forecasts for the next 20 years (with and without the design) which i’d like to make use of. I’m thinking about taking the following approach:
- Calibrate the model using baseline coding and traffic and fatalities for 2016.
- Create a new baseline dataset using the same baseline coding but with 2026 traffic flows, and using the calibration factors from step 1.
- Create a new design datatset using the design coding, forecast traffic flows 2026, and using the calibration factors from step 1.
I can then compare the FSI for datasets between steps 2 and 3. I’m using the midpoint traffic volume forecast (ie year 10) since that is about the average of year 1 and year 10.
Does this sound about right?